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Ruidoso, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
NWS Forecast for 3 Miles SW Ruidoso NM
National Weather Service Forecast for: 3 Miles SW Ruidoso NM
Issued by: National Weather Service Albuquerque, NM
Updated: 2:15 pm MDT Jul 9, 2025
 
This
Afternoon
This Afternoon: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Partly sunny, with a high near 85. East wind around 5 mph becoming south.
Chance
T-storms
Tonight

Tonight: Scattered showers and thunderstorms before 9pm.  Partly cloudy, with a low around 62. Southeast wind around 5 mph becoming southwest in the evening.  Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Scattered
T-storms then
Mostly Clear
Thursday

Thursday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 3pm.  Increasing clouds, with a high near 88. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Sunny then
Scattered
T-storms
Thursday
Night
Thursday Night: Isolated showers and thunderstorms before midnight.  Partly cloudy, with a low around 64. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Isolated
T-storms then
Partly Cloudy
Friday

Friday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms after noon.  Mostly sunny, with a high near 90. West wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon.  Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Sunny then
Scattered
T-storms
Friday
Night
Friday Night: Isolated showers and thunderstorms before midnight.  Partly cloudy, with a low around 59. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Isolated
T-storms then
Partly Cloudy
Saturday

Saturday: Showers and thunderstorms after noon.  High near 83. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Sunny then
T-storms
Saturday
Night
Saturday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56.
Chance
T-storms then
Partly Cloudy
Sunday

Sunday: Showers and thunderstorms after noon.  High near 80. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Mostly Sunny
then T-storms
Hi 85 °F Lo 62 °F Hi 88 °F Lo 64 °F Hi 90 °F Lo 59 °F Hi 83 °F Lo 56 °F Hi 80 °F

Flood Watch
 

This Afternoon
 
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 85. East wind around 5 mph becoming south.
Tonight
 
Scattered showers and thunderstorms before 9pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 62. Southeast wind around 5 mph becoming southwest in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Thursday
 
Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 3pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 88. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Thursday Night
 
Isolated showers and thunderstorms before midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 64. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Friday
 
Scattered showers and thunderstorms after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 90. West wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Friday Night
 
Isolated showers and thunderstorms before midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 59. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Saturday
 
Showers and thunderstorms after noon. High near 83. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Saturday Night
 
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56.
Sunday
 
Showers and thunderstorms after noon. High near 80. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Sunday Night
 
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56.
Monday
 
Showers and thunderstorms likely. Partly sunny, with a high near 78. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Monday Night
 
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 57.
Tuesday
 
Showers and thunderstorms likely. Partly sunny, with a high near 81. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

 

Forecast from NOAA-NWS for 3 Miles SW Ruidoso NM.

Weather Forecast Discussion
495
FXUS65 KABQ 092031
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
231 PM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 218 PM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025

- Hazardous heat is forecast for the northwest plateau today and
  Thursday, and over the middle Rio Grande Valley and West Central
  Highlands.

- For the remainder of the work week some gusty virga showers and
  dry thunderstorms are forecast each afternoon and early evening
  west of the central mountain chain and north of Highway 60.
  Wetting precipitation chances will begin to increase there this
  weekend into early next week.

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop
  each afternoon and evening Friday through early next week from
  the central mountain chain eastward, and over the southwest
  mountains. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible each day with
  a heightened risk of burn scar flash flooding.

- Marginal risk of severe weather for eastern New Mexico tomorrow
  and Friday afternoons. Hail and damaging wind gusts will be the
  main threats.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 218 PM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025

The center of the monsoon high is currently sitting
just west of the New Mexico and Arizona border, with 500mb heights
in the 596 through 599 dm range. Consequently, widespread high
temperatures in the upper 90s and low 100s are forecast for the rest
of this afternoon along low lying areas in the Rio Grande Valley and
for much of northwestern New Mexico. A Heat Advisory is in effect
for the Northwest Plateau, including Farmington, through 7 PM MDT.
Another result of this slight westerly shift in high pressure is
that it has allowed for drier northwesterly air to infiltrate the
western part of the state. The local 18Z sounding shows that PWATS
are only slightly lower today as compared to yesterday, but with 40
to 50 degree dewpoint depressions for areas west of the central
mountain chain, chances for wetting rainfall are low. However,
moist low level upslope flow along eastern New Mexico will continue
to keep conditions juicy for areas along and east of the central
mountain chain. With model PWATS of about an inch and dewpoints
already in the low to mid 60s, efficient rainfall rates of half an
inch to an inch may be possible for any storms that develop south of
I-40. While a Cu field is already developing over much of the high
terrain, a strong cap has inhibited strong convection so far, so
most storms should initiate in the mid to late afternoon hours.

Given the antecedent conditions and flooding over the last few days,
there is another Flood Watch in effect for the Ruidoso area this
afternoon. Confidence for heavy rainfall is less today, with most
ensembles showing accumulations of about a quarter to half an inch.
Storm motion may also be a little bit more towards the southwest,
which may allow for precipitation to move over less sensitive parts
of the burn scars. Some CAMs are also depicting a later batch of
showers moving into the area from the north at around sunset, so
bumped up Pops to around 30% for the 6 to 9 PM time range. However,
the most recent model runs are showing these storms dissipating
before reaching the Ruidoso areas, so confidence for impacts is low.

On Thursday, the upper level high continues to shift westward and
becomes stretched due to a passing shortwave over the central
Rockies. Pressure heights will still be in the 592 through 596 dm
range over much of the state, so temperatures will once again be in
the upper 90s to lower 100s. Have issued a Heat Advisory from noon
to 7 PM on Thursday afternoon for the Northwest Plateau (including
Farmington), and the middle Rio Grande Valley and West Central
Highlands (including the Albuquerque metro). Temperatures between
100 and 104 degrees for areas under the Heat Advisory will lead to
moderate and major HeatRisk. Sensitive individuals should limit time
outdoors and make sure to stay hydrated throughout the day.

As the shortwave kicks through the Colorado Rocky Mountains and
clips northern New Mexico, forcing from this systems will allow for
an increase in thunderstorms coverage along the Sangre De Cristo
mountains and areas to the east. There is a marginal risk of severe
weather for northeast New Mexico on during the afternoon. While CAPE
values aren`t anything to rave about (1000 to 1500 J/kg), the
stronger shear aloft should be able to produce some more robust
thunderstorms with hail and damaging winds. Some CAMs are showing
storms could possibly congeal into a strong line over east central
New Mexico and persist through the begging of the evening past
sunset as it makes its way east. PWATs will not be anything out of
the ordinary for this time of year, and with storm motions being
faster, have opted to forgo a Flood Watch for both burn scars as
accumulations should remain under a quarter inch.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 218 PM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Dry air punches in behind Thursday`s trough, dropping PWATs to
below average throughout much of the state. Some moisture will be
replenished along eastern areas a backdoor front looks to push
through into the central mountain on Friday morning and early
afternoon. Another shortwave trough will dig south into northeast New
Mexico, bringing in another round of severe weather for areas east
of the central mountains, particularly for areas north of I-40 along
a frontal boundary. These thunderstorms could persist much later
into the evening, and some guidance is even hinting at an MCS
forming over the tri-state area of Colorado, Kansas, and Oklahoma,
possibly spilling over into Union county. Another backdoor cold
front looks to push through eastern New Mexico on Saturday morning
behind this second trough as well. A canyon gap wind may affect the
ABQ metro with both backdoor events and bring some gusty 15 to 20 kt
east winds.

Heading into the weekend, thunderstorm coverage looks to become
numerous to widespread, with a greater influx of moisture over the
region. On Saturday, New Mexico may find itself in between the
monsoon high over Baja California and a deepening low pressure
system over the Texas Panhandle. This pattern looks to usher in some
rich moisture from both gulfs into the region. Precipitation looks
to focus over areas along and east of the central mountain chain,
and with model PWATS in the 1.25 range, these storms could be
efficient rain makers. Ensemble guidance is showing that large
swaths of eastern New Mexico could see 48 hr rainfall totals of
0.5 to 0.75 inches for this weekend. The 90th percentile solution
shows areas like Roswell and clovis getting 1 to 2 inches. As a
result, there is increasing confidence of flash flooding,
particularly for the sensitive burn scar areas, each afternoon
from Saturday through Tuesday. A more typical monsoon pattern
develops for the beginning of next week as the high pressure
begins to reestablish itself over the Great Basin and afternoon
thunderstorms form over the high terrain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 218 PM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025

VFR conditions expected at all sites throughout the period. Breezy
to gusty westerly winds for KFMN and KGUP this afternoon, with some
mid level clouds persisting into the evening. Sites east of the
central mountain chain will see a more southerly wind, with gusts as
strong as 20 kts during the early afternoon. Isolated virga showers
and dry thunder storms may develop along western areas and could
create some gusty and erratic outflows. Confidence is low for virga
to affect any TAF sites today. However, scattered to numerous
thunderstorms looks to build late this afternoon along the central
mountain chain, primarily affecting KSRR and the Sacramento
mountains. Confidence is also too low for any impacts from showers
for KSAF and KLVS, but would not be surprised if KLVS may see a
strong gust or two from an outflow. Winds lighten up overnight and
then pick up again from the west for most areas by late morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 218 PM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025

With rain and moist conditions in the forecast for much of the state
throughout the period, fire weather concerns will remain minimal.
This afternoon and tomorrow, isolated virga showers and dry
thunderstorms for areas west of the central mountain chain may
create new fire starts. Temperatures will also be abnormally hot
throughout the next two days for most of the state, with highs in
the 100s for the middle and lower Rio Grande Valley area. A couple
of storm systems this weekend will bring some breezier and dryer
conditions to northwestern New Mexico. Meanwhile, areas along and
east of he central mountain chain look to get repeated rounds of
rainfall each afternoon through the beginning of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  66 100  59  96 /  10   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  52  95  46  93 /  10  10   5  10
Cuba............................  60  95  57  92 /  10  20  10   5
Gallup..........................  58  97  55  94 /  10  10  10   0
El Morro........................  60  93  57  90 /  20  20  20   5
Grants..........................  61  97  58  94 /  20  20  10   5
Quemado.........................  64  94  61  91 /  30  30  40  10
Magdalena.......................  69  93  67  94 /  10  50  30  10
Datil...........................  62  93  64  90 /  20  40  30  10
Reserve.........................  59  99  57  97 /  40  50  30  20
Glenwood........................  65 104  62 101 /  40  50  20  30
Chama...........................  52  86  48  86 /   5  20   5  20
Los Alamos......................  64  90  63  88 /   5  30   5  20
Pecos...........................  60  90  58  87 /   5  40  20  30
Cerro/Questa....................  59  88  54  86 /   0  40  10  40
Red River.......................  51  79  46  77 /   0  40  10  40
Angel Fire......................  44  83  40  80 /   0  50  10  50
Taos............................  57  91  52  89 /   0  30   5  30
Mora............................  54  87  52  83 /   5  50  10  40
Espanola........................  63  98  60  96 /   5  20   5  20
Santa Fe........................  64  92  62  90 /   5  30  10  20
Santa Fe Airport................  62  96  60  94 /   5  20  10  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  73  99  71  97 /   5  20  20  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  71 100  70  99 /   5  20  20  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  70 103  68 101 /   5  20  20   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  71 101  69  99 /   5  20  20   5
Belen...........................  69 101  66 101 /   5  20  20   5
Bernalillo......................  70 102  67 100 /   5  20  20  10
Bosque Farms....................  69 101  65 100 /   5  20  20   5
Corrales........................  71 102  68 101 /   5  20  20  10
Los Lunas.......................  70 101  67 100 /   5  20  20   5
Placitas........................  69  97  67  96 /   5  20  10  10
Rio Rancho......................  70 101  68  99 /   5  20  20   5
Socorro.........................  72 102  70 104 /  10  30  30  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  65  93  62  91 /   5  20  20  20
Tijeras.........................  67  94  64  93 /   5  20  20  20
Edgewood........................  59  94  58  91 /   5  20  20  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  58  95  56  93 /   5  20  20  20
Clines Corners..................  60  89  58  86 /   5  20  20  20
Mountainair.....................  64  94  60  91 /  10  30  30  20
Gran Quivira....................  62  92  59  91 /  10  30  30  20
Carrizozo.......................  66  94  67  96 /  20  30  30  20
Ruidoso.........................  62  87  64  89 /  30  30  20  40
Capulin.........................  59  87  53  82 /   5  50  30  40
Raton...........................  56  90  53  86 /   0  50  20  40
Springer........................  57  94  54  88 /   5  40  10  40
Las Vegas.......................  57  90  54  86 /   5  40  10  30
Clayton.........................  67  94  61  90 /   5  30  40  10
Roy.............................  63  91  57  86 /   5  30  20  20
Conchas.........................  67  98  63  94 /   5  30  30  20
Santa Rosa......................  64  96  62  91 /  10  20  20  10
Tucumcari.......................  67  96  63  91 /   0  20  30   5
Clovis..........................  67  97  67  94 /   0   5  30   5
Portales........................  68  97  67  95 /   0   5  30   5
Fort Sumner.....................  67  97  66  95 /   5  10  20   5
Roswell.........................  70 100  72  99 /   0   5  10   5
Picacho.........................  64  96  66  94 /   5  20  10  20
Elk.............................  63  94  66  93 /   0  20  10  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ201.

Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM MDT Thursday for NMZ201-207-219.

Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ226.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...25
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Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather






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